© 2009 Buffalo Weather Experience Center
I have noticed that as forecast models have been developed and improved, forecasters sometimes seem to be relying exclusively on model output and not extrapolating from maps, data, observations as was perhaps done in prior decades. Is this sort of extrapolation still valued in forecast meteorology, or is it currently considered obsolete?

"Competent meteorologists never rely solely on model output to make a forecast. So, yes, upper air and surface data are still put in constant use, as is satellite and radar imagery of widely varying types. Models are a valuable tool, but meteorologists still perform the basic tasks common to operational forecasters for many decades."

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Past "Ask the Expert" Questions

  • How do computer models aid meteorologists in forecasting the location, timing, and intensity of lake effect snow?
  • I heard the Gowanda area received over 7 inches of rain in the hours before the flash flood on August 9th. What is the greatest 24 hour rainfall ever recorded at the Buffalo NWS office?
  • I am concerned that the wind turbines in Wyoming County are having an adverse effect on our doppler radar sytems to predict severe storms in Western NY. What is the scientific data concerning this problem?
  • During this past weekend's storm I was sitting at the kitchen table when all of a sudden a large orange/red ball of I think lightening went across and disappeared with a loud noise similar to a gunshot. What is this?
  • I know about the term "lake effect" in the winter but do the Great Lakes produce lake effect in the summer too?

    Thanks to Tom Niziol and Don Paul for contributing to BWEC's "Ask the Expert."