© 2010 International Weather Experience Center @ Buffalo
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How do computer models aid meteorologists in forecasting the location, timing, and intensity of lake effect snow?
Candace, West Seneca
Brief answer: Highly detailed models give meteorologists more refined wind direction forecasts to help locate the bands, and better predictions of how buoyant the air over the lake may be — the more upward motion, the thicker the lake effect convective clouds will be, similar to thunderstorms, and the greater the precipitation amounts will be. However, these models are nowhere near perfect, and a meteorologist must never rely only on models to make a forecast.
The meteorologist must also look at the actual measurements of moisture, wind direction, buoyancy, and barometric pressure made by weather balloons launched twice a day here and all across the nation. Much data is also gathered by Doppler radars, giving us a cross section of motion within the atmosphere.
Models must constantly be compared to reality; that is, what was predicted to happen versus what actually has happened. There’s a lot more to it than what we’ve detailed here, but these are just sampling of tools and thought processes a meteorologist must put to good use to have any chance to make a reasonably accurate forecast in what involves a very small scale phenomenon covering only a minority of the forecast region.
Thanks to Tom Niziol, Meteorologist-in-Charge, National Weather Service, Buffalo and Don Paul, Chief Meterologist, WIVB-TV Channel 4 for contributing to IWEC's "Ask the Expert."
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